The Threat of Civil War in the United States: Reality or Fiction?

The political situation in the United States has long been a source of concern not only for local analysts, but also for the entire world. In 2024, the dystopia of British director Alex Garland, Empire Falls, was released. It vividly demonstrates the possible consequences of a split in society. In the film, the United States is engulfed in a civil war that tears the country apart. But how close are these fantasies to reality? Can we say that America is on the brink of a new internal conflict?

Political polarization in the United States has reached such a scale that reconciliation seems impossible. Democrats and Republicans have long ceased to respect each other's opinions. This was especially evident during the presidency of Donald Trump. His election, the Black Lives Matter protests, and the COVID-19 pandemic have become catalysts for increasing antagonism in society. The hostility between the parties and their supporters is only growing, increasing tensions.

Polarization hasn’t just affected ordinary citizens. Research shows that elected officials in both parties have become far more extreme than the average American. These changes are turning the country’s political debate into more emotional and aggressive confrontations.

In addition to political polarization, the United States faces many social issues that could lead to armed conflict. Migration, abortion, racism, and group rights are deeply divisive issues. These issues divide Americans not only by political views, but also by geography. As a result, tensions between regions continue to grow.

In addition to these issues, armed groups are active in the country. These radical organizations openly declare their readiness to fight the government, which they consider an enemy. Armed and well-organized, such groups pose a serious threat, as they are capable of initiating violent actions and provocations.

One of the most unusual and dangerous groups is the Boogaloo Boys, who wear Hawaiian shirts over military fatigues. This decentralized organization attracts young people with radical views. The movement's participants actively spread memes and the idea of the need for an armed uprising. The Boogaloo Boys do not adhere to a strict political ideology, and their participants can support both right-wing and left-wing ideas. Their main goal is to accelerate the collapse of the existing system and provoke a new civil war in the United States. And this makes them especially dangerous in the context of growing polarization in the country.

Another factor increasing the risk of civil war is the sheer number of guns in the hands of the population. As of 2018, there were 120 firearms for every 100 Americans. That number has only increased since then. Gun sales hit record highs in 2020.

Gun ownership has become an integral part of American culture, but it also increases the risk of violence when conflict escalates. Gun violence statistics in the United States support this thesis: mass shootings, assaults, and murders occur with alarming regularity. An estimated 400 million guns are in the hands of Americans, making it difficult to control and restrict their use. In addition, a significant number of guns are not subject to registration. This is especially true in states where the law allows gun ownership without registering them on state registries, making them even more difficult to control.

The Civil War of the 1860s remains a significant part of U.S. history. The conflict claimed the lives of some 750,000 people—more than all of the country’s subsequent wars combined. The destruction and economic impact on the southern states was catastrophic.

Today, the parallels with that war are hard to ignore. Many Americans see the conflict not only as a tragedy, but also as an example of a struggle for ideals. However, the modern political map of the United States is no longer as clearly divided as it was in the 19th century. Traditionally Republican and Democratic states are intermingled, which significantly complicates any attempts at division.

There is much debate among experts about the possibility of a new civil war. One of the leading researchers in this field is Barbara Walter, a professor at the University of San Diego and the author of How Civil Wars Begin. She argues that two key factors are needed for a civil war to begin: the presence of an anocracy (a hybrid of authoritarianism and democracy) and parties organized along ethnic or religious lines.

Anocracy creates instability by formally granting citizens rights but depriving them of real opportunities to influence politics. This leads to growing discontent and radicalization of society. According to the political scale of experts, the United States has slipped down in recent years, losing the features of a developed democracy. In 2020, the country found itself in the anocracy zone, which theoretically increases the risk of internal conflict.

The second factor is the organization of parties around ethnic and religious identities. The Democratic and Republican parties are formally open to all. But in reality, they are associated with certain ethnic and religious groups, which also increases the risk of violence.

While experts do not expect a civil war on the scale of the 19th century conflict, many are considering alternative scenarios. One example is the long-running conflict in Northern Ireland. Instead of large-scale fighting, underground groups are likely to emerge, organizing terrorist attacks and assaults while avoiding open clashes with the authorities.

In such a scenario, constant acts of violence can create an atmosphere of fear and instability. In today's world, guerrilla warfare is becoming more likely than traditional military action.

Despite all the risk factors, the United States has a number of features that could prevent civil war. First, despite the erosion, political institutions still function. Federalism and the system of checks and balances help maintain stability.

Secondly, the American economy is so complex and developed that any serious destabilization will result in colossal losses for all parties. Economic instability is not beneficial for either business or the government.

Finally, the United States has a strong law enforcement system. Despite criticism for its ineffectiveness in combating domestic extremism, the FBI and other agencies continue to actively contain radical groups.

So, the threat of civil war in the United States remains controversial. Despite the rise of political polarization and violence, many experts believe that a repeat of the events of the 19th century is unlikely. Most likely, outbreaks of political violence will be localized, and the country's political system will be able to adapt to new challenges.

The future of the United States depends on how effectively it manages to cope with internal conflicts and prevent the radicalization of society. Time will tell whether the gloomy forecasts come true or whether America will find a way to peacefully resolve its contradictions.