Futurist said there are three major threats to humanity in the 21st centuryPictolic
Futurist Yuval Noah Harari believes that in 2020 years humanity will be faced with several serious challenges that will threaten the possibility of its existence. My thoughts on this account of the experts expressed during a speech at the world economic forum in Davos, and we want to tell you about it.
According to Harari, an Israeli historian, futurist and Professor at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, now the mankind is threatened by three issues. It is nuclear war, environmental crisis and the destructive power of technology. And if the first two people are more or less familiar, it is third for them remains a mystery.
Harari believes that technology, in addition to the obvious benefits, are a lot of threats. But the main danger lies in the fact that no one knows the potential consequences of their continuous improvement. We can only guess what will happen to the planet if there is widespread automation and the development of artificial intelligence. Therefore, the Professor has focused on this problem and shared his thoughts on this subject.
Automation will destroy millions of jobs and people will remain idle. Of course, there will be new disciplines, including the creation of SOFTWARE. But, it is not easy to become a programmer, if you're 30 years old worked in the factory? In this situation, many people will become "useless" from the point of view of economic and political system.
Those who can master a new profession (which, most likely, have to do not once, not twice), will turn into a kind of elite. And between these two "classes" will be a constant struggle.
In the nineteenth century, several countries, including Britain and Japan started the first industrialization. They have successfully continued to conquer and exploit much of the world. If we're not careful, the same thing will happen in the twenty-first century artificial intelligence (AI).
We can already observe the "arms race" of AI, and China with USA is undoubtedly her lead. If you do not take action to distribution of use and power of AI among all people and countries, most likely, a large number of States just go bankrupt, while others will turn into high-tech centres.
This danger can be formulated in a simple equation, which, according to Harari, it may be the defining equation of life in the twenty-first century:
B x C x D = AHH
Where B — biological knowledge, C — computing, D — data, and AHH — the ability to "hack" people.
This knowledge can be used for good — for example, to improve the health care system. But if the information gets into the wrong hands, the result may be the worst totalitarian regime in human history.
But even if the mankind will manage to prevent the establishment of similar digital dictatorships, the ability to hack people can still undermine the very meaning of freedom. As people will rely on AI in decision-making, the power will gradually go from them to the algorithms. And this is already happening.
Billions of people today trust the algorithm Facebook, which reports what's new in the world, Google's algorithm, which tells what is true and what isn't, Netflix that tells us what to watch, and the algorithms of Amazon and Alibaba, who tell us what to buy.
If this continues, soon such an algorithm will tell us where to work and whom to marry, and to decide whether to hire us to work, whether to give us credit, and whether the Bank to raise interest rates.
Thus, even in relatively free countries, people can lose control over their lives and ability to understand public policy.
Technology can destroy not only the economy, politics and philosophy, but also the very human biology. In the coming decades, AI and biotechnology will give us "divine" ability of the reengineering of life and even create entirely new forms. After four billion years of organic life formed by natural selection, we are entering a new era of inorganic life formed by intelligent design.
And this idea will become a new driving force of evolution, where people will make mistakes on a cosmic scale. For example, governments, corporations and the army are more likely to use technology to improve the necessary human skills such as intelligence and discipline. And ignore skills such as compassion, sensitivity and spirituality.
Professor Harari emphasizes that all this is not a prophecy, but simply options for the development of possible scenarios. In his opinion, the three existential problems facing the people, require global solutions.
Yuval Noah Harari
Futurist believes that the representatives of different countries need to cooperate, because the only way you will be able to ensure the safety and future of their compatriots. A good example of this model of the scientist called the world Cup.